Solar Energy Reaches for the Sun

Remarkably, solar panels have become far less expensive than expected due to accelerating technological advances and the enormous production of solar cells from China. The cost per watt has dropped to $1.50 and is forecast to fall further. Since 2001 world solar cell (photo voltaic = PV) production has doubled every 2 years. This astounding growth rate could result in 1500 gigawatts (GW) of cumulative electrical power by 2020 according to Lester Brown”s “World on the Edge." At maximum output that would be equivalent to 1500 nuclear power plants. Solar panels are used not only on homes, office buildings, and factories but as utilities suppling peaking power in urban areas particularly during the heat of the day. There are now 77 PV utility installations in the US in development or in operation. 

Solar power is becoming competitive with natural gas, nuclear power, and later coal. Solar is already cheaper than natural gas peaker plants and is cheaper than new nuclear plants.  Solar can be installed in 2 years versus 8 to 10 years for nuclear. According to the Rocky Mountain Institute, solar power will be 50% cheaper in 5 years. It is forecast to be competitive with coal fired power plants in 6 years giving a huge boost to the solar industry. The Department of Energy expects solar costs to be cut 75 percent by 2020 through its SunShot Initiative. One promising innovation is the 3D solar cell with miniature towers which collect almost all of the suns rays raising the efficiency from 12 percent to 25 percent, predicted to be commercial by 2015.

Even though PV solar panels are best suited to peaker utilities and placement on buildings, CSP or concentrated solar power is coming into its own as a producer of baseload power.  CSP uses reflectors to focus on vessels of fluid to make steam for turbines to generate electricity. Heat can be stored underground in molten salt above 1000 degrees F. to make steam for the turbines 8 hours following sunset thus providing baseload electricity for the evening hours. There are now 40 CSP plants in the US producing 3GW, enough to power about 600,000 homes. The Southwest could satisfy the energy needs of the US four times over. A consortium of European companies, Desertec Industrial Initiative plans to produce an astounding 300GW of power for Europe, North Africa and the Middle East using CSP.

Installations of rooftop solar hot water heaters are increasing around the world with more than 100 million in China, Germany, Austria, and Australia. Solar hot water is required for new homes in Hawaii, Spain, Portugal, and Israel. The payback time for installation costs is about 10 years.

Globally we could produce as much as 77 percent of our electricity from renewables by 2050 according to a recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.  This would help stabilize economies, reduce pollution, and avoid catastrophic global warming.  Germany plans to produce 38 percent of its energy from renewables by 2020 using feed-in tariffs to support fledgling renewable industries. Feed-in tariffs are being employed successfully in other European countries and are being considered by several US states.

Are you ready to install solar energy at your home? Prices for solar panels have plummeted and will continue to fall as new technologies, installation practices, and efficiencies are manifested. Producing part of your electrical power will make your family and your community more resilient and self-reliant in dealing with the energy, economic, climate and environmental shocks of the 21st century.

—Jackson Harper