Virginia One of Three 'Must Win' States in Presidential Election?

New poll out Friday puts Virginia votes in 'toss-up' status with Romney ahead of Obama 50 percent to 47 percent in Virginia.

Can Bruce Springsteen help President Obama win Virginia? The popular singer will perform in a free concert Tuesday in Charlottesville on the president's behalf. He did the same for the president last week in Ohio, considered another must-win state in the election.

The fight for Virginia votes is getting more intense. With Election Day two weeks from Tuesday, Virginia is becoming one of the ground-zero states in the presidential election and the candidates are pulling out all the stops in trying to win the state come Nov. 6. 

"I consider it one of the three crucial states," said Stuart Rothenberg, editor and publisher of the Rothenberg Political Report, a Washington-based newsletter, counting the others as Ohio and Colorado, the Richmond Times-Dispatch reported Sunday. "You've got to win two out of those three."

According to two polls released last week, Virginia's status in the presidential election has moved from leaning toward President Obama to being a "toss-up" state.

Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney is ahead 50 percent to President Obama's 47 percent among likely Virginia voters, according to a new poll released Friday.

The poll, by Rasmussen Reports, a conservative-leaning polling firm, surveyed likely voters and was taken two nights after the second presidential debate. 

An American Research Group poll released last Monday had Romney ahead by 1 percentage point in Virginia. Those who favored Romney in that poll tended to be white, age 50 and older, and male. Fifty-two percent who identified themselves as Independents in the poll said they planned to vote for Romney.

Rasmussen Reports shows that the following states have moved from "toss up" states to "leaning Romney" states:

  • Florida
  • North Carolina
  • Missouri

The states Rasmussen puts in the "toss-up" column (he notes Wisconsin, while Rothenberg notes Colorado):

  • Virginia
  • Ohio
  • Wisconsin

In the 2008 presidential election, Obama won Virginia by 52.62 percent to GOP nominee Sen. John McCain's 46.33 percent.

The survey of 750 likely voters by Rasmussen in Virginia was conducted Thursday by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95 percent level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

University of Virginia's Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball report from Thursday about the presidential election: "We don’t have a dog in this race, but we are rooting for one thing: no tie! A 269-269 Electoral College outcome would inevitably be a national crisis on par — or worse — with the 2000 Florida cliffhanger, especially if Romney lost the popular vote."

Obama and Romney each visited Northern Virginia last week. For details on those campaign stops see:

President Obamas 'Romnesia' Speech at GMU

Romney Calls for Return to American Values

Sally Spangler October 22, 2012 at 03:27 PM
Sally Spangler October 22, 2012 at 03:32 PM
Well, wait and see when and if your candidate wins or Mr. Obama remains as president. Don't look just what the ballyhoo puts out, but what the country and the world are doing in all areas. One man's voice/thoughts aren't what happens in America. This country no longer stands all by itself, but with all countries, wherever they are on this globe!
T Ailshire October 22, 2012 at 05:29 PM
Kathy, our politicians and our celebrities use these tactics because they truly believe we are too stupid to think for ourselves, and this will sway us. Too often, we (collectively) prove them right. Never underestimate the stupidity of people in large groups.
Marcia Bowker October 22, 2012 at 07:46 PM
Wake up, Northern Virginia! Once this administration cuts defense spending, so go many jobs here! With what's happening in the world today, our country needs a strong military defense now more than ever. That is only one issue. Especially important, we need a man of action to lead our country and get our economy going not one of all talk and no action as we have now. He has had four years to "change" things around and it is worse than ever. Mitt's our man!
T Ailshire October 22, 2012 at 08:00 PM
Northern Virginia has benefited from those jobs, but the nation has not. I have been in goverment service, in one form or another, since 1978 (military, civil service, government contractor) and have yet to see an organization that was not overstaffed or duplicative. Now, I haven't been in all of them, I grant, but no commercial business could survive with the waste and inefficiency of a government bureaucracy. Neither Romney nor Obama is our guy ... but until WE THE PEOPLE wake up and demand a leader, we'll get what we get. I'm just happy I have another choice.


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